On May 29, the Silicon Industry Branch of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association released the latest transaction prices for solar-grade polysilicon.
In the past week:
N-type material: Transaction price of 40,000-43,000 RMB/ton, with an average of 41,800 RMB/ton, down 2.79% week-on-week.
N-type granular silicon: Transaction price of 37,000-39,000 RMB/ton, with an average of 37,500 RMB/ton, unchanged week-on-week.
Monocrystalline re-feeding material: Transaction price of 36,000-41,000 RMB/ton, with an average of 38,600 RMB/ton, unchanged week-on-week.
Monocrystalline dense material: Transaction price of 34,000-39,000 RMB/ton, with an average of 37,300 RMB/ton, unchanged week-on-week.
Monocrystalline cauliflower material: Transaction price of 31,000-36,000 RMB/ton, with an average of 33,700 RMB/ton, unchanged week-on-week.
Compared to the prices on May 22, this week’s silicon material prices have slightly declined. The average transaction price of N-type rod silicon dropped to 41,800 RMB/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 2.79%. Prices for N-type granular silicon and P-type material remained relatively stable.
According to Sohu Photovoltaic Network, the silicon material market’s order volume continued to be sluggish this week, primarily consisting of small orders. Feedback from relevant companies indicates that in response to the current market prices, most silicon material companies are adopting a strategy of holding back goods and maintaining firm pricing positions. As of the end of May, at least nine companies, including four leading manufacturers, have begun maintenance shutdowns. The growth rate of silicon material inventory has significantly slowed, with an estimated May production of about 180,000 tons and inventory levels stable at 280,000-300,000 tons. Starting in June, all silicon material companies plan to or have already begun maintenance, which is expected to improve the market supply and demand situation in the near future.
At the recent 2024 China Polysilicon Industry Development Forum, Duan Debing, a member of the Standing Committee of the Party Committee, Vice President, and Secretary-General of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, stated that the current increase in polysilicon supply is significantly greater than the demand. Due to prices falling below the cash costs of all enterprises, some companies have postponed their production schedules, with most capacity increments concentrated in the second half of the year. The total domestic polysilicon production for the year is expected to be 2 million tons. In 2024, the market should focus on the continuous cost reduction and quality improvement of polysilicon, the transfer of wafer production capacity, the expectation of oversupply, and the acceleration of industry layout adjustments.
Wafer market: Prices remained stable this week. According to Sohu Consulting data, wafer production in May was about 60GW, with a projected decline in June production and a noticeable trend of decreasing inventory. As current silicon material prices stabilize, wafer prices are also expected to gradually bottom out.
Battery segment: Prices continued to decline this week, with N-type batteries seeing a maximum drop of 5.4%. Recently, battery manufacturers have started to gradually reduce production plans, with some companies entering the inventory clearance stage at the end of the month. P-type battery profitability has slightly recovered, while N-type batteries are being sold at a loss. It is believed that with current downstream market demand fluctuations, the risk of battery inventory accumulation is increasing. Operating rates are expected to continue to decrease in June, and further price drops are possible.
Module segment: Prices saw a slight decrease this week. In a recent framework procurement by Beijing Energy Group, the lowest bid price was 0.76 RMB/W, drawing widespread industry attention. However, according to an in-depth understanding from Sohu Photovoltaic Network, mainstream photovoltaic companies currently hope to stabilize market prices and avoid irrational bidding. For example, in the recent procurement of 100MW photovoltaic modules by Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry Power Company in Xia County, bids ranged from 0.82 to 0.86 RMB/W, with an average of 0.8374 RMB/W. Overall, current industry chain prices are at historical lows, with a clear bottoming trend. As downstream installation demand recovers, the downward price space for modules is limited.